What's next after third North Korea rocket launch?
News Type
Q&As
Date
Paragraphs
After stirring international media attention and drawing criticism from its neighbors and the United States, North Korea’s controversial launch of a rocket under the guise of installing an “Earth observation” satellite in orbit took place on Apr. 13.
David Straub, associate director of Stanford’s Korean Studies Program, assesses the likely responses of the United States and other concerned countries, and provides historical context for the actions of North Korea’s leadership.
How is the launch going to impact North Korea’s relations with the United States and other countries?
We have already “been there, done that.” This will be the third North Korean test of a long-range rocket in six years. Shortly after the launches in 2006 and 2009, the North Koreans tested their first nuclear devices. The concern is that they will again use the expected international condemnation of their launch as a pretext for conducting another nuclear test.
But sometimes experience changes perspective. The United States and other countries will want to try to respond to the rocket test in a way that complicates any North Korean effort to justify a new nuclear test.
The international community really cannot remain silent, because United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1874, which was passed in 2009, forbids North Korea from conducting precisely this kind of launch. I anticipate the UNSC will meet to discuss the situation but will not be able to issue a formal resolution. It will probably wind up issuing only a UNSC presidential statement criticizing the launch. China is the main obstacle. It does not approve of North Korea’s activities, but it is more concerned that putting great pressure on North Korea will result in instability.
The United States, South Korea, and Japan will continue to consult and coordinate closely with one another. They may take additional measures to collect intelligence about North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. They may also look to bolster their cooperation on missile defense, and take further steps to restrict North Korea’s access to nuclear- and missile-related materials and technology. They may apply additional economic sanctions to show their disapproval of North Korea’s actions.
Do you think the launch is going make it more difficult for North Korea to conduct trade and obtain aid and development assistance?
North Korea’s behavior now is part and parcel of its behavior over the past several decades. For the North Korean regime, the wellbeing of its people is clearly a secondary priority compared to its own survival.
At least since the end of the cold war, North Korea has faced a dilemma: Open up or fail, or open up and fail. In other words, it needs to open up to receive outside investment and technology if it is ever to have a successful economy. If it does not do that, the regime is unsustainable over the long run. But North Korea’s leaders fear that opening to the outside world would bring down their regime because it will expose the country’s weaknesses to its people. In order to get out of this dilemma, they have reached for weapons of mass destruction—particularly nuclear devices and the missiles they hope eventually can carry them. That is why there is no indication the North Korean leadership is prepared to completely give up those programs, at least on any terms that the United States, Japan, or South Korea could accept.
This is a long-term challenge for the United States and its allies. We have to see the situation for what it is, and deal with it accordingly. That means we must never “accept” North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. As long as North Korea maintains these programs, we must make it clear that we will not establish diplomatic relations or ease sanctions. But that also does not mean that we should not continue to hold out to North Korea the possibility of a negotiated settlement, should it really be prepared to completely give up these programs.
What are some of the key things to keep in mind about North Korea’s recent actions and about the country in general?
To understand what North Korea is doing, we have to get back to basics. The fundamental situation stems from the 1945 division of the Korean Peninsula into two separate states. North Korea’s Stalinist-style system developed into a totalitarian dictatorship with a personality cult, and it has been spectacularly unsuccessful, especially compared to its rival state South Korea.
The leaders in North Korea are reasonably well-informed and intelligent people. They saw what happened to the Soviet Union and its satellite states in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and decided it would not happen to them. For them, the lesson was: Do not open up or even receive aid, unless it is completely controlled to minimize outside influences. Most of the North Korean elite believes their regime is the legitimate Korean regime. They also understand that regime collapse could well mean absorption of the North by the South, and the possibility that they could go on trial for crimes against their own people. I anticipate that most of the elite will try very hard to hold the regime together in the coming years, even if it means continuing to pursue nuclear and missile programs and threatening and even attacking South Korea again.
But sooner or later major change is inevitable in such a rigid system. This requires the concerned countries to have a clear-headed analysis of the situation, take a long-term perspective, and consistently implement a principled policy. It is very challenging to do this with so many countries involved. But it can be done. Over the long term, the strengths of democracies far outweigh their weaknesses in dealing with countries like North Korea.
Hero Image
Kim Il Sung leads a cheering crowd in a North Korea propaganda painting, Aug. 2011.
Flickr/Joseph Ferris III
All News button
1
Changing Course? A Critical Analysis of South Korea's Parliamentary Election Results
-
On April 11, South Koreans go to the polls to select all 299 members of their unicameral National Assembly. Politicians, journalists, and scholars are closely observing the election for what it may say about the direction of the country, one of Asia's most dynamic democracies. A coalition of progressive parties is hoping for a major win, which would greatly increase the left's influence after four years of conservative party domination and also boost its chances in the December 19 presidential election. Progressives are calling for increased social welfare spending at home and a new sunshine policy toward North Korea; meanwhile, conservatives are stressing fiscal responsibility and insisting that North Korea must move toward denuclearization before receiving aid from the South.
Daniel C. Sneider, associate director for research at Stanford's Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC), will lead a conversation with Professor Gi-Wook Shin to analyze the effect of regional, generational, and economic divides on the election outcome, and the implications for the presidential campaign and South Korea's future domestic and external policies, including relations with the United States.
Sneider currently directs the Center's project on Nationalism and Regionalism and the Divided Memories and Reconciliation project, a three-year comparative study of the formation of historical memory in East Asia. His own research is focused on current U.S. foreign and national security policy in Asia, and on the foreign policy of Japan and Korea. Sneider was named a National Asia Research Fellow by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and the National Bureau of Asian Research in 2010. He is the co-editor, with Shin, of History Textbooks and the Wars in Asia: Divided Memories, from Routledge, 2011. In addition, he is the co-editor of Cross Currents: Regionalism and Nationalism in Northeast Asia, Shorenstein APARC, distributed by Brookings Institution Press, 2007; of First Drafts of Korea: The U.S. Media and Perceptions of the Last Cold War Frontier, 2009; as well as of Does South Asia Exist?: Prospects for Regional Integration, 2010. Prior to coming to Stanford, Sneider was a long-time foreign correspondent. His twice-weekly column for the San Jose Mercury News looking at international issues and national security from a West Coast perspective was syndicated nationally on the Knight Ridder Tribune wire service. Previously, Sneider served as national/foreign editor of the Mercury News. From 1990 to 1994, he was the Moscow bureau chief of the Christian Science Monitor, covering the end of Soviet Communism and the collapse of the Soviet Union. From 1985 to 1990, he was Tokyo correspondent for the Monitor, covering Japan and Korea. Prior to that he was a correspondent in India, covering South and Southeast Asia. He also wrote widely on defense issues, including as a contributor and correspondent for Defense News, the national defense weekly.
Shin is the director of Shorenstein APARC; the Tong Yang, Korea Foundation, and Korea Stanford Alumni Chair of Korean Studies; the founding director of the Korean Studies Program; a senior fellow of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies; and a professor of sociology, all at Stanford University. As a historical-comparative and political sociologist, Shin's research has concentrated on areas of social movements, nationalism, development, and international relations.
He is the author/editor of numerous books and articles. His books include Beyond North Korea: Future Challenges to South Korea's Security (2011); U.S.-DPRK Educational Exchanges: Assessment and Future Strategy (2011); History Textbooks and the Wars in Asia: Divided Memories (2011); South Korean Social Movements: From Democracy to Civil Society (2011); One Alliance, Two Lenses: U.S.-Korea Relations in a New Era (2010); First Drafts of Korea: The U.S. Media and Perceptions of the Last Cold War Frontier (2009); Cross Currents: Regionalism and Nationalism in Northeast Asia (2007); Rethinking Historical Injustice and Reconciliation in Northeast Asia (2006); Ethnic Nationalism in Korea: Genealogy, Politics, and Legacy (2006); North Korea: 2005 and Beyond (2006); Contentious Kwangju (2004); Colonial Modernity in Korea (1999); and Peasant Protest and Social Change in Colonial Korea (1996), for which he received an Honorable Mention from the American Sociological Association. Due to the wide popularity of his publications, many of them have been translated and distributed to Korean audiences. His articles have appeared in academic journals including the American Sociological Review, the American Journal of Sociology, Nations and Nationalism, Comparative Studies in Society and History, International Sociology, Pacific Affairs, Asian Survey, and Asian Perspectives.
Philippines Conference Room
Gi-Wook Shin
Shorenstein APARC
Encina Hall E301
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
0
gwshin@stanford.edu
Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Professor of Sociology
William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea
Professor, by Courtesy, of East Asian Languages & Cultures
Gi-Wook Shin is the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea in the Department of Sociology, senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and the founding director of the Korea Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) since 2001, all at Stanford University. In May 2024, Shin also launched the Taiwan Program at APARC. He served as director of APARC for two decades (2005-2025). As a historical-comparative and political sociologist, his research has concentrated on social movements, nationalism, development, democracy, migration, and international relations.
In Summer 2023, Shin launched the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL), which is a new research initiative committed to addressing emergent social, cultural, economic, and political challenges in Asia. Across four research themes– “Talent Flows and Development,” “Nationalism and Racism,” “U.S.-Asia Relations,” and “Democratic Crisis and Reform”–the lab brings scholars and students to produce interdisciplinary, problem-oriented, policy-relevant, and comparative studies and publications. Shin’s latest book, The Four Talent Giants, a comparative study of talent strategies of Japan, Australia, China, and India to be published by Stanford University Press in the summer of 2025, is an outcome of SNAPL.
Shin is also the author/editor of twenty-six books and numerous articles. His books include Korean Democracy in Crisis: The Threat of Illiberalism, Populism, and Polarization (2022); The North Korean Conundrum: Balancing Human Rights and Nuclear Security (2021); Superficial Korea (2017); Divergent Memories: Opinion Leaders and the Asia-Pacific War (2016); Global Talent: Skilled Labor as Social Capital in Korea (2015); Criminality, Collaboration, and Reconciliation: Europe and Asia Confronts the Memory of World War II (2014); New Challenges for Maturing Democracies in Korea and Taiwan (2014); History Textbooks and the Wars in Asia: Divided Memories (2011); South Korean Social Movements: From Democracy to Civil Society (2011); One Alliance, Two Lenses: U.S.-Korea Relations in a New Era (2010); Cross Currents: Regionalism and Nationalism in Northeast Asia (2007); and Ethnic Nationalism in Korea: Genealogy, Politics, and Legacy (2006). Due to the wide popularity of his publications, many have been translated and distributed to Korean audiences. His articles have appeared in academic and policy journals, including American Journal of Sociology, World Development, Comparative Studies in Society and History, Political Science Quarterly, Journal of Asian Studies, Comparative Education, International Sociology, Nations and Nationalism, Pacific Affairs, Asian Survey, Journal of Democracy, and Foreign Affairs.
Shin is not only the recipient of numerous grants and fellowships, but also continues to actively raise funds for Korean/Asian studies at Stanford. He gives frequent lectures and seminars on topics ranging from Korean nationalism and politics to Korea's foreign relations, historical reconciliation in Northeast Asia, and talent strategies. He serves on councils and advisory boards in the United States and South Korea and promotes policy dialogue between the two allies. He regularly writes op-eds and gives interviews to the media in both Korean and English.
Before joining Stanford in 2001, Shin taught at the University of Iowa (1991-94) and the University of California, Los Angeles (1994-2001). After receiving his BA from Yonsei University in Korea, he was awarded his MA and PhD from the University of Washington in 1991.
Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL)
Explore SNAPLReengaging North Korea
Learn moreStanford Asia-Pacific Innovation
Learn moreDirector of the Korea Program and the Taiwan Program, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Hide publication sections
Off
Daniel C. Sneider
Associate Director for Research, Shorenstein APARC
Host
Stanford University
Conferences
Heeyoung Kwon
Walter H. Shorenstein
Asia-Pacific Research Center
616 Serra St., Encina Hall E301
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
0
hkwon2@stanford.edu
Visiting Scholar
Heeyoung Kwon is a visiting scholar with the Korean Studies Program, and she is also currently a program officer in the Public Diplomacy Department at the Korea Foundation. She has been responsible for organizing bilateral forums such as the Seoul-Washington Forum and the Korea-Japan Forum, as well as KF Global Seminars at the Korea Foundation.
Her recent interests are South Korea-U.S. foreign policy toward North Korea and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, including the possible resumption of the Six Party Talks.
Kwon received a BA in history from Hanyang University in Seoul, and an MA in Korean studies from the Graduate School of International Studies at Seoul National University. The topic of her MA thesis was about the South Korea-U.S. relationship, focusing on the dispatch of Korean soldiers to the Vietnam War.
Globalization of the Korean Capital Markets
-
In the five decades since the end of the Korean War, Korea has developed from an impoverished, agrarian nation with a per capital GDP of less than $50 to the twelfth largest economy in the world and one of the leading global trading nations with an estimated per capita GDP of U.S. $20,165 in 2010. Despite this phenomenal economic achievement, Korea’s financial system lags behind its economic and trading status. According to the World Bank Survey, its financial system is ranked twenty-sixth in the world. In order for Korea to continue its economic growth and become a global financial center, its financial system needs to be modernized.
This workshop has been organized to bring senior officials from industry, academic institutes, regulatory bodies, and government together to identify and address some of the issues facing Korea’s capital markets. The workshop’s objective is to conclude with a list of specific action items that can be recommended for implementation in order to address the issues that have been identified.
This workshop is made possible by the generous support from the Koret Foundation.
Bechtel Conference Center
Workshops