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The past year unfolded with Japan’s unprecedented triple disaster and closed with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s historic trip to Myanmar. Moving into 2012, Europe’s economy creaks along uncertainly and China gears up for a major leadership change. In an interview with the Ukranian magazine Glavred, political science professor Phillip Lipscy discusses landmark Asian economic and political events of 2011, and what they could mean in the coming year.

What was the most significant event in terms of Asia’s economy in 2011?

The March 11 Great Tohoku earthquake and tsunami: Besides the tragic loss of life and property, the disaster disrupted global supply chains and plunged the Japanese economy into a recession. The nuclear meltdown in Fukushima also led many countries to question the future of nuclear energy—this will have long-lasting consequences for global energy markets and efforts to deal with climate change.

What was the most significant political event?

Signs of political opening in Burma/Myanmar could have profound consequences not only for that country but for the rest of Asia as well. Hillary Clinton became the first U.S. Secretary of State to visit the country in 50 years. Aung San Suu Kyi has been released from detention and the National League for Democracy has re-registered as a political party. If this leads to democratization, it will be remembered as an important turning point.

What new policy and economic trends appeared in 2011? Which of them will continue into the coming year?

There seems to be a subtle shift in views towards China's economy. Chinese government officials are deeply concerned about the "middle income trap." China has reached a level of development where many countries saw their economic growth slow down sharply. Rising incomes are eroding China's advantage in low-cost manufacturing. There is much talk of multinational companies relocating their operations to even cheaper countries, such as Vietnam. This is an important transition for China, and it will remain an important issue in coming years.

In terms of people, who do you feel was the most notable, and who was
the most disappointing this past year?


The people of Japan, who responded with remarkable perseverance, order, and discipline to such a tragic natural disaster.  

The most disappointing were the political leaders of Japan, who could not set aside
their differences and come together for the sake of their country.

Will China continue to spread its influence in 2012, and might any countries oppose this process?

China is now the second largest economy in the world and an important military power. It is inevitable that China will rise in international stature and influence. However, Chinese leaders also face some important challenges—rising inequality, an overheated housing market, and bad loans in its financial system. The focus of international attention should be on integrating China into the world order as a peaceful, responsible stakeholder—not on confrontation.

What impact could the economic crisis in Europe have on the economics and international policy of the Asia-Pacific region?

If the financial crisis in Europe is mismanaged, nobody will escape the consequences. Europe is a crucial export market for Asian countries, and European financial institutions are major lenders to emerging economies in the region. Equally as important, repeated financial crises and political mismanagement in the United States, Japan, and Europe could begin to undermine perceptions of democratic government and capitalism.

What will be most important event in Asia next year?

China's leadership transition, particularly given the many immediate challenges the country faces.

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U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visits Aung San Suu Kyi at her house in Rangoon, Myanmar, Dec. 2011.
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A sustained interest of the Japan Studies Program is to analyze Japan’s transforming political economy and finance. Japan experienced one of the fastest growth rates in the world throughout the 20th century. In the 1990s, however, it grew at the slowest rate among advanced industrial countries. Major change occurred during the 1990s, leading new political, social, and economic dynamics during first decade of the 21st century. Corporations were reorganized, new social realities emerged, and major political transitions occurred.

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The global health community has been aiming at ensuring health coverage for all. To achieve universal health care coverage, the German Social Health Insurance model is one solution. However, one major disadvantage of Social Health Insurance is the fragmented insurance plans, exemplified by 3,500 insurance plans in Japan’s public universal health insurance system. To improve the financial sustainability of Japan’s public universal health insurance, policy options include consolidating fragmented plans as already implemented in Germany and South Korea.

This presentation has two major goals. One is to evaluate the optimal health insurance size in consolidating 3,500 insurance plans in Japan through a simulation analysis using the best available micro data in Japan. The other goal is to discuss the global policy implications based on the experiences of Japan's public universal health insurance.

Dr. Byung-Kwang Yoo is an associate professor in health policy in the Department of Public Health Sciences at the UC Davis School of Medicine. Yoo’s unique career includes clinical medicine (MD) in Japan and research experience as a health services researcher/health economist in the United States. He obtained an MS in health policy and management from Harvard University, and a PhD in health policy and management (concentration on health economics) from Johns Hopkins University. Yoo used to work as a research associate at the Center for Health Policy at Stanford University, as a health economist at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, and as an assistant professor in the Division of Health Policy at the University of Rochester School of Medicine in New York State. He has published his work in leading journals such as Lancet, Health Economics, Health Services Research, the American Journal of Public Health, and the American Journal of Preventive Medicine.

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Byung Kwang Yoo Associate Professor in Health Policy in the Department of Public Health Sciences, School of Medicine Speaker UC Davis
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Japan Colloquium Series Inaugural Event  
 

Japan is facing a major set of challenges in the aftermath of its triple disaster of earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear crisis. It had just begun recovering from the 2008 global financial crisis when the disasters hit. Richard Katz will discuss the economic and political prospects for Japan after this catastrophe in a broader global context. He will also be presenting lessons from Japan for U.S. policymakers fighting the current slump. 
 

Richard Katz is editor of the Oriental Economist Report, a monthly newsletter on Japan, as well as the semi-weekly TOE Alert e-mail service on Japan. He is also a special correspondent at Weekly Toyo Keizai, a leading Japanese business weekly. Katz is the author of two books on Japan. The first is Japan: The System That Soured--The Rise and Fall of the Japanese Economic Miracle (M.E. Sharpe,1998); it was published in a Japanese edition as Kusariyuku Nihon To Iu System (Toyo Keizai, 1999). His second book, entitled Japanese Phoenix: The Long Road to Economic Revival (M.E. Sharpe, 2002), was published in English, and in Japanese as Fushicho no Nikon Keizai (Toyo Keizai). Katz has taught about Japan as an adjunct professor in economics at the State University of New York at Stony Brook and at the New York University Stern School of Business. He regularly writes op-eds for newspapers such as the Asian Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times, as well as essays for a variety of journals, including the article “The Japan Fallacy?” for the March-April 2009 issue of Foreign Affairs. He has testified about in Japan in Congress on several occasions. Katz received his MA in economics from New York University in 1996.

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Richard B. Katz Editor Speaker The Oriental Economist Report
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This paper adopts a unified approach to an understanding of the development processes of the East Asian economies, Chinese, Japanese and South Korean, in terms of common five phases starting with Malthusian equilibria and extended to forthcoming post-demographic transitions characterized by the shrinkage of the working-age group share in the population. Notwithstanding of the basic commonality, however, there are also marked differences among the East Asian economies in the timing of turning points, durations, and substantive forms of the phases. The paper claims that those differences need to be co-explained by accompanying variations in institutional trajectories. It identifies the Malthusian origins of contrasting political-economic and social-norm characteristics in Chinese and Japanese institutional arrangements and discusses their transformations over successive phases. By delineating institutional characteristics of China and Japan from a game-theoretic perspective, it implicitly challenges prevailing views that contrast the East and the West in such general terms as kinship vs. the third party enforcement of contracts, Confucianism vs. Protestantism, collectivism vs. individualism, authoritarianism vs. liberal democracy, and the like. These dichotomies are too simplistic for explaining the uniqueness, commonality and variations of institutional arrangements in East Asia and their impacts on development processes of respective economies.

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Working Papers
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Social Science Research Network
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Masahiko Aoki
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The 2008–2009 financial crisis demands we look anew at the role of corporations, and the working of financial markets around the world. In this challenging and insightful book, one of our most eminent economists provides a compelling new analysis of the corporate firm; the role of shareholders, managers and workers; and institutional governance structures.

In recent decades the firm has predominantly been seen as an organization run and governed in the interests of shareholders, where management acts as the agent of shareholders, and the workers simply as instruments for share-value maximization. This book reverses this viewpoint. It sees corporations as associational cognitive systems where "cognitive actions" are distributed amongst managers and workers, with shareholders supplying "cognitive tools" and monitoring their use in the systems. Aoki analyses the different relationships that can exist between shareholders, managers, and workers from this perspective, and identifies a range of different models of organizational architecture and associated governance structures. He also discusses ways in which corporations act as players in social, political, and organizational games, as well as global economic games; how these inter-related social dynamics may change particular, distinctive national structures into the diversity incorporated in the global corporate landscape; and how they now call for new roles for financial markets.


"Masahiko Aoki uses the social mathematics of game theory to reveal the deep structure of corporate governance systems, in the process explaining the persistence of diversity under conditions of globalization. His profound and highly original analysis speaks directly to the issue of corporate governance reform in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008–9."
-Simon Deakin, Professor of Law, University of Cambridge

"The recent wave of fraud, corruption, and fiscal irresponsibility at the highest corporate levels dramatizes the need for a model of the modern corporation that is at the same time deeply economic in the recognition of the centrality of incentives, and deeply sociological in the recognition of the centrality of social norms and a culture of corporate morality. Professor Aoki has combined his magisterial knowledge of business organization with a foundational study of the role of culture in epistemic game theory to produce, for the first time, a truly transdisciplinary model of the corporation."
-Herbert Gintis, Santa Fe Institute

"This is a path breaking book that provides a rigorous analysis of the cognitive underpinnings of corporations. It gives fundamental insights into the diversity of organizational forms that exist and the association of these with the historical, political, social, and technological contexts within which they operate. As with so much of Professor Aoki's work, it will radically alter the way in which we view the corporation."
-Colin Mayer, Peter Moores, Dean, Saïd Business School, University of Oxford

"A pioneering contribution which formalizes in game theoretic language complex institutional structure and environment of the corporation both at a moment of time and over time."
-Douglass C. North, Nobel Laureate in Economics 1993, Spencer; T. Olin Professor in Arts and Sciences, Washington University in St. Louis

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Publication Type
Books
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Oxford University Press
Authors
Masahiko Aoki
Number
0199218536
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