International Relations

FSI researchers strive to understand how countries relate to one another, and what policies are needed to achieve global stability and prosperity. International relations experts focus on the challenging U.S.-Russian relationship, the alliance between the U.S. and Japan and the limitations of America’s counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan.

Foreign aid is also examined by scholars trying to understand whether money earmarked for health improvements reaches those who need it most. And FSI’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center has published on the need for strong South Korean leadership in dealing with its northern neighbor.

FSI researchers also look at the citizens who drive international relations, studying the effects of migration and how borders shape people’s lives. Meanwhile FSI students are very much involved in this area, working with the United Nations in Ethiopia to rethink refugee communities.

Trade is also a key component of international relations, with FSI approaching the topic from a slew of angles and states. The economy of trade is rife for study, with an APARC event on the implications of more open trade policies in Japan, and FSI researchers making sense of who would benefit from a free trade zone between the European Union and the United States.

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The Trans-Pacific Sustainability Dialogue convenes social science researchers and scientists from Stanford University and across the Asia-Pacific region, alongside student leaders, policymakers, and practitioners, to accelerate progress on achieving the United Nations-adopted 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The conference aims to generate new research and policy partnerships to expedite the implementation of the Agenda's underlying framework of 17 Sustainable Development Goals.

The two-day event is held in Seoul, South Korea, on October 27 and 28, 2022 Korea Standard Time, and is free and open to the public.

Registration is now open for in-person attendees. The conference is also offered online. Watch the live webcast from this page below (session available in English and Korean) and follow the conversation on Twitter: @StanfordSAPARC #AsiaSDGs2022.

The Dialogue's main hosts and organizers are Stanford's Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) and the Ban Ki-moon Foundation For a Better Future. The co-hosts are the Korea Environment Institute (KEI) and Ewha Womans University. The co-organizers include the Natural Capital Project (NatCap) of Stanford University, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea, Korea Environmental Industry and Technology Institute (KEITI), Korea Environment Corporation (K-eco), and Korea Water Resources Corporation (K-water).

Day 1 Livestream (English)

Day 1 Livestream (Korean)

Day 2 Livestream: Expert Panel (English)

Day 2 Livestream: Expert Panel (Korean)

Day 2 Livestream: Student Panel (English)

NOTE: The times below are all in Korean Standard Time.

DAY 1: THURSDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2022

Hosted by the Korea Environment Institute

Grand Ballroom​, The Plaza Seoul
119 Sogong-Ro, Jung-gu, Seoul


9:00 – 9:30 AM
Opening Session
Welcome remarks:
Ban Ki-moon, the 8th Secretary-General of the United Nations and Chairman of the Ban Ki-moon Foundation For a Better Future
Gi-Wook Shin, Director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and Korea Program, Professor of Sociology, William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea, and Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University

Congratulatory remarks:
Kevin Rudd, former Prime Minister of Australia and Chief Executive Officer and President of the Asia Society (pre-recorded video message)
Han Duck-soo, Prime Minister of the Republic of Korea


Plenary 1
9:45 – 10:45 AM
World Leaders Session

Keynotes:
Ban Ki-moon, the 8th Secretary-General of the United Nations and Chairman of the Ban Ki-moon Foundation For a Better Future
Iván Duque, former President of the Republic of Colombia (live video link)
Gombojav Zandanshatar, Chairman of the State Great Hural (Parliament) of Mongolia

Moderator:
Gi-Wook Shin, Director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and Korea Program, Professor of Sociology, William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea, and Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University


Plenary 2
11:00 AM – 12:15 PM
Climate Change Session

Organized by the Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Scientific Affairs Bureau of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Korea

Keynote: 
Henry Gonzalez, Deputy Executive Director of Green Climate Fund

Panelists: 
Nabeel Munir, Ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan to the Republic of Korea and Chair of the G77 at the United Nations
Hyoeun Jenny Kim, Ambassador and Deputy Minister for Climate Change, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea
Oyun Sanjaasuren, Director of External Affairs of Green Climate Fund

Moderator:
Tae Yong Jung, Professor of Sustainable Development at the Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University


12:15 – 1:30 PM

Lunch 
Hosted by the Korea Environment Institute

Welcome remarks:
Chang Hoon Lee, President of the Korea Environment Institute

Congratulatory remarks:
Kim Sang-Hyup, Co-Chairperson of the 2050 Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth Commission
Eun Mee Kim, President of Ewha Womans University, Professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, and Director of the Ewha Global Health Institute for Girls and Women, Ewha Womans University


Plenary 3
1:30 – 2:45 PM
Multilateralism for a Resilient and Inclusive Recovery Towards the Achievement of the SDGs

Organized by the Development Cooperation Bureau of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Korea

Keynote: 
Hidehiko Yuzaki, Governor of Hiroshima Prefectural Government, Japan

Panelists:
Kaveh Zahedi, Deputy Executive Secretary, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UN ESCAP) (live video link)
Kim Sook, Executive Director of the Ban Ki-moon Foundation For a Better Future and former Ambassador and Permanent Representative of the Republic of Korea to the United Nations
Won Doyeon, Director-General of the Development Cooperation Bureau, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea 

Moderator:
Eun Mee Kim, President of Ewha Womans University, Professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, and Director of the Ewha Global Health Institute for Girls and Women, Ewha Womans University


Plenary 4
3:00 – 4:15 PM
KEI Green Korea: SDGs in North Korea

Organized by the Korea Environment Institute

Keynote: 
Sung Jin Kang, Professor of the Department of Economics and the Graduate School of Energy and Environment, Korea University

Panelists:
Habil Bernhard Seliger, Representative of Hanns Seidel Stiftung - Seoul Office, Republic of Korea (pre-recorded video message)
Ganbold Baasanjav, Head of Subregional Office for East and North-East Asia, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UN ESCAP)
Haiwon Lee, Emeritus Professor of Hanyang University and President of Asian Research Network for Global Partnership

Moderator:
Chang Hoon Lee, President of the Korea Environment Institute


Plenary 5
4:30 – 5:30 PM
Valuing Nature to Achieve the SDGs

Organized by the Natural Capital Project of Stanford University

Keynote:
Gretchen Daily, Bing Professor of Environmental Science in the Department of Biology, Faculty Director of the Natural Capital Project, Director of the Center for Conservation Biology, and Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University

Panelists:
Juan Pablo Bonilla, Manager of the Climate Change and Sustainable Development Sector, Inter-American Development Bank
Choong Ki Kim, Senior Research Fellow, Korea Environment Institute

Moderator:
Nicole Ardoin, Emmett Faculty Scholar and Associate Professor in the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, Sykes Family Director of the Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, and Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University


DAY 2: FRIDAY, OCTOBER 28, 2022

Hosted by Ewha Womans University 
52 Ewhayeodae-gil, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul


Expert panels are held in Room B412
Student panels (see below) are held in Room B143
ECC, Ewha Womans University


9:00 – 9:15 AM
Opening Session for Expert Panels

Welcome remarks:
Eun Mee Kim, President of Ewha Womans University, Professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, and Director of the Ewha Global Health Institute for Girls and Women, Ewha Womans University
Gretchen Daily, Bing Professor of Environmental Science in the Department of Biology, Faculty Director of the Natural Capital Project, Director of the Center for Conservation Biology, and Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University


Expert Panel 1
9:15 – 10:30 AM
Livable, Sustainable Cities

Organized by the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center of Stanford University

Keynotes:
Park Heong-joon, Mayor of Busan Metropolitan City, Republic of Korea
Khurelbaatar Bulgantuya, Member of the State Great Hural (Parliament) of Mongolia and Chair of Sustainable Development Goals Sub-Committee of Parliament

Panelists:
Anne Guerry, Chief Strategy Officer and Lead Scientist at the Natural Capital Project, Stanford University
Perrine Hamel, Assistant Professor at the Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University

Moderator:
Kiyoteru Tsutsui, Deputy Director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and Director of the Japan Program, Professor of Sociology, Henri H. and Tomoye Takahashi Professor of Japanese Studies, Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and Director of the Center for Human Rights and International Justice, Stanford University


Expert Panel 2
11: 00 AM – 12:15 PM
Climate Change, Disaster Risks, and Human Security in Asia

Organized by Ewha Womans University

Panelists:
Juan M. Pulhin, Professor, Scientist, and former Dean of the College of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of the Philippines, Los Baños (live video link)
Rajib Shaw, Professor in the Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio University
Brendan M. Howe, Professor and Dean of the Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University
Rafael Schmitt, Lead Scientist at the Natural Capital Project, Stanford University

Moderator:
Jaehyun Jung, Assistant Professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University


12:15 – 1:30 PM
Lunch 

Hosted by Ewha Womans University

Welcome remarks:
Eun Mee Kim, President of Ewha Womans University, Professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, and Director of the Ewha Global Health Institute for Girls and Women, Ewha Womans University


Expert Panel 3
1:30 – 2:45 PM
Valuing Nature in Finance for Systems Transformation


Organized by the Natural Capital Project of Stanford University

Keynote:
Elías Albagli, Director of the Monetary Policy Division of the Central Bank of Chile

Panelists:
Qingfeng Zhang, Chief of Rural Development and Food Security (Agriculture) Thematic Group and Chief of Environment Thematic Group of the Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, Asian Development Bank (live video link)
Tong Wu, Senior Scientist and Associate Director of the China Program at the Natural Capital Project, Stanford University

Moderator:
Chung Suh-Yong, Professor at the Division of International Studies of Korea University and Director of the Center for Climate and Sustainable Development Law and Policy of Seoul International Law Academy


Expert Panel 4
3:15 – 4:30 PM
Valuing Nature to Achieve Sustainable Development


Organized by the Natural Capital Project of Stanford University

Keynote:
Mary Ruckelshaus
, Director at the Natural Capital Project, Stanford University

Panelists:
James Salzman, Donald Bren Distinguished Professor of Environmental Law at the Bren School of Environmental Science & Management at the University of California, Santa Barbara and the School of Law at the University of California, Los Angeles
Yong-Deok Cho, General Director at K-water and Secretary General of the Asia Water Council

Moderator:
Alejandra Echeverri, Senior Scientist at the Natural Capital Project, Stanford University


9:00 – 9:15 AM
Opening Session for Student Panels

Welcome remarks:
Brendan M. Howe, Professor and Dean of the Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University
Nicole Ardoin, Emmett Faculty Scholar and Associate Professor in the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, Sykes Family Director of the Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, and Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University


Student Panel 1
9:15 – 10:30 AM
Green Financing and Sustainable Investments

Organized by Ewha Womans University

Panelists:
Assia Baric, PhD student, Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University
Siddharth Sachdeva, PhD student, Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University
Sevde Arpaci Ayhan, PhD candidate, Graduate School of International Studies, Seoul National University 
Mae Luky Iriani, Master’s student, Department of International Relations, Universitas Katolik Parahyangan
Wu Qichun, PhD candidate, Asia-Europe Institute, University of Malaya

Moderator:
Hannah Jun
, Assistant Professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University


Student Panel 2
11:00 AM – 12:15 PM
Gender Mainstreaming and Climate Governance

Organized by Ewha Womans University

Panelists:
Vimala Asty Fitra Tunggal Jaya, PhD student, Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University 
Liza Goldberg, Undergraduate student, Computer Science Department and Earth Systems Program of the Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University
Gahyung Kim, PhD candidate, Global Education Cooperation Program, Seoul National University
Maria Golda Hilario, Master’s student, College of Liberal Arts, De La Salle University 
Putri Ananda, Master’s student, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University

Moderator:
Minah Kang, Professor at the Department of Public Administration, Bioethics Policy Studies, and Department of International Studies, Ewha Womans University


Student Panel 3
1:30 – 2:45 PM
Development Cooperation for Sustainable Governance

Organized by Ewha Womans University

Panelists:
Elham Bokhari, PhD student, Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University 
Suzanne Xianran Ou, PhD candidate, Department of Biology, Stanford University
So Yeon Park, PhD student, Global Education Cooperation Program, Seoul National University 
Emmanuel O. Balogun, PhD candidate, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Stanford University
Darren Mangado, PhD student, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University
 
Moderator:
Jinhwan Oh, Professor of the Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University


Student Panel 4
3:15 – 4:45 PM
Bringing Environmental Solutions to Scale Through a Business and Social Justice Lens

Organized by the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center of Stanford University

Panelists:
Patricia Aguado Gamero, PhD candidate, Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University
Sergio Sánchez López, PhD student, Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University
Felicia Istad, PhD candidate in Public Policy, Department of Public Administration, Korea University 
Sardar Ahmed Shah, PhD student, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University 
Ma. Ella Calaor Oplas, PhD student in Development Studies and Faculty Member, School of Economics, De La Salle University
Shiina Tsuyuki, Undergraduate student, Keio University

Moderator:
Cheryll Alipio, Associate Director for Program and Policy of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University


Closing Session 
5:00 – 5:30 PM
Readying Human Capital for Sustainable Development

Organized by the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center of Stanford University

Closing remarks:
Nicole Ardoin, Emmett Faculty Scholar and Associate Professor in the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, Sykes Family Director of the Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, and Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University
Gi-Wook Shin, Director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and Korea Program, Professor of Sociology, William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea, and Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University
Brendan M. Howe, Professor and Dean of the Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University
Kim Bong-hyun, former Ambassador of the Republic of Korea to Australia, former President of Jeju Peace Institute, and Advisor to Mr. Ban Ki-moon, the 8th Secretary General of the United Nations at the Ban Ki-moon Foundation for a Better Future

Offered online via live webcast and in-person in Seoul, South Korea.

Day 1: October 27, 9 AM - 5:30 PM KST | Grand Ballroom, The Plaza Hotel, Seoul
Day 2: October 28, 9 AM - 5:30 PM KST | Room B412 (Expert Panels), Room B143 (Student Panels), ECC, Ewha Womans University

SCROLL DOWN TO WATCH THE LIVE WEBCAST

Conferences
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Adam Liu Poster

The Henan bank protest, the Evergrande crisis, and the ongoing local government debt issue in China all point to one thing: there’s something wrong with the country’s banking system. Beijing needs to better regulate the numerous small banks that are now intimately intertwined with much of China's economic challenges. 

They’re working on it, but there’s no easy solution.

Adam Y. Liu will tell us the origins of the dilemma, the increasing role of small banks in China and local development, and what tradeoffs China will likely have to make to prevent a run-away banking crisis.

Speaker

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Adam Liu Headshot
Adam Y. Liu is assistant professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore. His main research interests include Chinese politics and political economy. He is currently working on a book project that explores how central-local politics drove the formation, expansion, and operation of what he calls a "state-owned market" in China's banking sector. The project is based on his dissertation, which won the 2020 BRICS Economic Research Award. He received his Ph.D. in political science from Stanford University and was a postdoctoral associate with the Leitner Program in International and Comparative Political Economy at Yale University. 

Jean C. Oi

Virtual event via Zoom

Adam Y. Liu
Seminars
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Ali Wyne Event Card

Following the launch of his new book, America's Great-Power Opportunity: Revitalizing U.S. Foreign Policy to Meet the Challenges of Strategic Competition, Wyne joins the China Program’s Author Series to discuss how the United States must avoid complacency and consternation in appraising China and Russia. Rather than attempting the unfeasible—countering their current and future initiatives and forestalling subsequent provocations—Wyne argues that Washington should formulate a more practical, creative, and sustainable foreign policy that can advance U.S. national interests regardless of what steps Beijing and Moscow take, and that recent competitive missteps give the U.S. space to undertake this task.

For more information about America's Great-Power Opportunity or to purchase a copy, please click here.

Speaker

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Ali Wyne Headshot
Ali Wyne is a Senior Analyst at the Eurasia Group’s Global Macro Geopolitics practice and Author of the brand-new book America’s Great Power Opportunity: Revitalizing U.S. Foreign Policy to Meet the Challenges of Strategic Competition.

Jean C. Oi

Virtual event via Zoom

Ali Wyne
Seminars
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Visiting Scholar at APARC, 2022-23, 2023-24
China Policy Fellow, 2022-23, 2023-24
Laura Stone.jpeg

Laura M. Stone joined the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) as Visiting Scholar and China Policy Fellow for the 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 academic years. She currently serves the U.S. Department of State, recently as Deputy Coordinator for the Secretary's Office for COVID Response and Health Security. While at APARC, she conducted research with the China Program and Professor Jean Oi regarding contemporary China affairs and U.S.-China policy.

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The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) is pleased to invite applications for a suite of fellowships in contemporary Asia studies to begin fall quarter 2023.

The Center offers postdoctoral fellowships that promote multidisciplinary research on contemporary Japan and contemporary Asia broadly defined, inaugural postdoctoral fellowships and visiting scholar positions as part of the newly launched Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab, and a fellowship for experts on Southeast Asia. Learn more about each opportunity and its eligibility and specific application requirements:

Postdoctoral Fellowship on Contemporary Japan

Hosted by the Japan Program at APARC, the fellowship supports research on contemporary Japan in a broad range of disciplines including political science, economics, sociology, law, policy studies, and international relations. Appointments are for one year beginning in fall quarter 2023. The application deadline is December 1, 2022.
 

Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellowship on Contemporary Asia

APARC offers two postdoctoral fellowship positions to junior scholars for research and writing on contemporary Asia. The primary research areas focus on political, economic, or social change in the Asia-Pacific region (including Northeast, Southeast, and South Asia), or international relations and international political economy in the region. Appointments are for one year beginning in fall quarter 2023. The application deadline is December 1, 2022.
 

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The Center offers a suite of fellowships for Asia researchers to begin fall quarter 2023. These include postdoctoral fellowships on contemporary Japan and the Asia-Pacific region, inaugural postdoctoral fellowships and visiting scholar positions with the newly launched Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab, and fellowships for experts on Southeast Asia.

Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall Central, C319-G
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Sallie has recently worked as Senior Community Advocate at Asian Americans Advancing Justice—Asian Law Caucus (ALC). Previously, she served as a National Coordination Assistant at the United Nations Resident Coordinator's Office (UNRCO) in China. She holds a Master of Laws degree in International Relations from Peking University and a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science from UC Los Angeles. Sallie's hobbies include writing, volunteering, and traveling. Her language fluency is Mandarin and Cantonese.

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This story was last updated on August 10, 2022.

Amid warnings and condemnations from Chinese leadership, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan on August 2, 2022, becoming the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the island since 1997. A day after Pelosi's visit, furious China began firing missiles near Taiwan in drills that appear to be a trial run for sealing off the island, and Japan said some missiles landed in its exclusive economic zone. In a series of articles and interviews, Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro examines the implications of Speaker Pelosi's visit, Beijing's response, and what the United States might do to prepare for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. 

Mastro joined CNN's Fareed Zakaria GPS to discuss what she calls the "unprecedented scale and complexity" of China's military drills near Taiwan. Over the past 20 years, China has invested in building up not only one of the most advanced and sophisticated militaries but also one that can attack and keep out the United States. So now, explains Mastro, beyond the live-fire and missile tests, the Chinese military exercises also included complex air and naval operations designed to demonstrate China's readiness to take Taiwan when it feels ready to do so. Watch:

According to Mastro, when China makes a move on Taiwan there has to be an element of surprise, so they don't want to do it right now when the United States has increased its focus and operations in the region. But we will probably see additional rounds of Chinese military exercises in the future, she predicts, "and the more they get to do it the more confident they become and the more likely we are to see Beijing initiate force against the island." 

A Question of Capability

China's round of military exercises in response to Speaker Pelosi's Taiwan visit was a bit of a “coming-out party” for Beijing, writes Mastro in an invited commentary for The Economist. After years of investments to build up and modernize the People's Liberation Army, China’s armed forces are now comparable to America’s in quality and quantity, Mastro says. But even with all these improvements, it is unclear whether China could take Taiwan by force. Chinese leaders knew the PLA had to conduct a series of large, realistic exercises to identify issues and hone their capabilities, and Pelosi's visit gave them the pretext to do exactly that. "China needs an element of surprise to be able to take Taiwan before America has time to mobilize adequate forces in the region to defend the island," Mastro notes. "If China’s forces are simulating formations, blockades, attacks, and amphibious landings, it will be harder to decipher when they are preparing for the real thing."

In an interview with BBC World News, Mastro argues that the political maneuvering intended to signal U.S. commitment to Taiwan — whether it comes in the form of Speaker Pelosi's visit or President Biden's statements that "the United States must protect Taiwan" — is ultimately unhelpful and does not address the more serious issue at hand, which is whether the United States has the military capabilities needed to defend Taiwan.

Mastro also suggested that Chinese leadership has benefited from Pelosi's visit, using the occasion for their own political purposes and to test some of their military capabilities to take Taiwan by force.

Watch the full discussion:

Subscribe to APARC newsletters to receive our experts' analysis and commentary.


According to Mastro, a noteworthy aspect of Pelosi's visit is that she chose to pursue it despite dissuasion from the Biden administration, signaling to Beijing that the U.S. model is grounded in the separation of powers and that Congress would act independently to pass legislation to supply arms or provide military funding to defend Taiwan.

Chinese Military Projection of Power

In response to Pelosi's visit, China announced military exercises in six regions around Taiwan, pressing its forces closer to the island than ever before. "They’re definitely going to use this as an excuse to do something that helps them prepare for a possible invasion,” Mastro says in a New York Times report. "Under the guise of signaling, they’re trying to basically test their ability to conduct complex maneuvers that are necessary for an amphibious assault on Taiwan.”

Mastro recently outlined the array of weaponry China has amassed for a forceful "unification" with Taiwan, pointing out that China has now the world's largest navy and that its missile force is thought to be capable of targeting ships at sea to neutralize the main U.S. tool of power projection, namely, aircraft carriers, notes a New York Times explainer.

Mastro also joined WBUR's On Point Radio host Meghna Chakrabarti to examine the fallout from China's military exercises around Taiwan, current Chinese military capabilities, and what a modern war over Taiwan would look like. Listen to the full conversation:

Artificial intelligence and machine learning will play a major role in a Taiwan contingency, and these are significant because they change much of China's perceptions of its capabilities, Mastro explains. First, the Chinese are concerned about the capabilities of their personnel, but if they can use AI-enabled systems and take the person out of the loop, then that makes them more confident in their military capabilities. Moreover, the Chinese notion of "war control" is such in which thinking through enables planning and preparing for every possible outcome and contingency in a war. "Algorithmic warfare is exactly what they have in mind. They think, 'If we have the right systems, we can project and ensure victory ahead of time.' So, from my perspective, AI is really significant because of how much more confidence it would give China in its ability to win a war."

When people talk about whether or not China can or cannot invade Taiwan, they’re actually talking about the level of operational cost that China would have to pay to do it. They could do it.
Oriana Skylar Mastro

Under Xi Jinping, the People's Liberation Army has modernized to a point where "armed reunification" with Taiwan seems increasingly plausible. But experts differ in interpreting China's calculus on Taiwan. "When people talk about whether or not China can or cannot [invade Taiwan], they’re actually talking about something different, the level of operational cost — the loss of ships, casualties — that China would have to pay to do it," Mastro tells the New York Times. "They could do it," she added.

Paths to Deterrence

Mastro also appeared in an interview with NBC Bay Area, explaining the context for the flaring U.S.-China tensions as they pertain to Taiwan. "The issue is that the United States promised not to have official ties with the Taiwan government, and the visit by Speaker Pelosi is understood by the Chinese as an official delegation, meaning the United States is violating its promise."

Pelosi's visit is not the first time the United States has sent an official delegation to Taiwan, and the Chinese follow-up military exercises are not the first sign of Chinese retaliation. What has changed this time around, according to Mastro, is Chinese military capabilities. "China now has a formidable force that could take Taiwan, if it felt like it, and I think that is encouraging a much more aggressive posturing on the part of Beijing," she said.

Mastro emphasized that the U.S. strategy of making symbolic statements of commitment to Taiwan is misguided and does not deter Beijing from aggressive action. "China's uncertainty right now is not about U.S. commitment but is, instead, about U.S. capability [...] I'm sure the Chinese are watching [Pelosi's visit], but the lessons they're learning is not that they should back off Taiwan, but instead that they need to strengthen their position to convince the United States not to engage in these kinds of activities in the future."


For more of Mastro's analysis of the fallout from Pelosi's visit and cross-Strait tensions, visit the links below:

What Does China Want from Taiwan? 
Sky News, August 12, 2022

Will the US and China Go to War Over Taiwan 
BBC, August 11, 2022

What Are the Issues Between the U.S., China, and Taiwan? Stanford Scholar Explains 
Stanford News, August 10, 2022

China’s Military Operations Around Taiwan After Pelosi Visit Show Intent to Change Status Quo 
South China Morning Post, August 5, 2022

China ‘Convinced It Needs to Hit Us With Pearl Harbor-style Surprise Attack’ to Win War Over Taiwan, Expert Warns 
The U.S. Sun, August 5, 2022

Stanford Experts Cast Grim Predictions for U.S.-China Relations Following Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit 
The Stanford Daily, August 5, 2022

China’s War Games May Not Lead to All-out Conflict Against Taiwan... Yet 
The Telegraph, August 4, 2022

Chinese Missiles Strike Seas Off Taiwan, and Some Land Near Japan 
New York Times, August 3, 2022

Taiwan Lives Under the Threat of a Modernized and Reinforced Chinese Army 
Les Echos, August 3, 2022

China’s Military Drills Could Be a Prelude to Something Much Worse in Taiwan 
The Telegraph, August 3, 2022

Why Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit Is Raising U.S.-China Tensions 
New York Times, August 2, 2022

Pelosi's Taiwan Visit Triggering Potential Military Showdown 
VOA Chinese, August 2, 2022

China and US on a Collision Course: Tensions Over Taiwan Continue to Rise 
de volkskrant, July 29, 2022 (in Dutch)

For Taiwan, Pelosi Visit is About Us, China Controlling Risk 
CBS Bay Area, July 29, 2022

Xi Jinping's Phone Call with Biden 
BBC Chinese, July 28, 2022

Pelosi’s Rumored Taiwan Trip Sparks Uproar 
The Dispatch, July 27, 2022

Taiwan Holds Drills Amid Pelosi Visit Concern, China Tension 
AP, July 25, 2022

Guam: The Sharpening of the Spear’s Tip 
Foreign Policy Focus, July 20, 2022

Expert Voices: Interview with Oriana Skylar Mastro 
Center for Advanced China Research, July 18, 2022

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Oriana Skylar Mastro

Oriana Skylar Mastro is a Center Fellow at FSI and is based at APARC, where her research focuses on Chinese military and security policy, Asia-Pacific security issues, war termination, nuclear dynamics and coercive diplomacy.
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Honor guards prepare to raise the Taiwan flag in the Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall square.
Commentary

Biden Says We’ve Got Taiwan’s Back. But Do We?

Many will applaud Mr. Biden for standing up for democratic Taiwan in the face of Chinese threats. But he could be putting the island in greater danger, and the United States may not be able to come to the rescue.
Biden Says We’ve Got Taiwan’s Back. But Do We?
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Assessing U.S. Force Posture in a Taiwan Contingency

Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro talks to the Center For Advanced China Research about the risk of Chinese attacks on U.S. military bases in Asia at the outset of a Taiwan conflict, the likelihood of Japanese or NATO involvement in a war over Taiwan, the downsides of focusing on communicating resolve to defend Taiwan, whether the United States is “outgunned” by China, and more.
Assessing U.S. Force Posture in a Taiwan Contingency
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Problems with Revisionism: A Conceptual Framework for Assessing Chinese Intentions

Deciphering China’s intentions is a pressing task for U.S. scholars and policymakers, yet there is a lack of consensus about what China plans to accomplish. In a new study that reviews the existing English and Chinese language literature on intentions and revisionism, Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro offers five propositions to allow for a more productive and data-driven approach to understanding Beijing’s intentions.
Problems with Revisionism: A Conceptual Framework for Assessing Chinese Intentions
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Speaker of the U.S. House Of Representatives Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), left, poses for photographs with Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen, right, at the president's office on August 03, 2022 in Taipei, Taiwan. Photo by Handout/Getty Images
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Political maneuvers like Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan only anger Beijing but ultimately do not address the key issue of whether the United States has the military capabilities needed to protect Taiwan, argues Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro.

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This essay is part of the H-Diplo International Security Studies Forum 35 (2022) on the Scholarship of Nancy Bernkopf Tucker.

Nancy Tucker is widely and appropriately recognized for her brilliant scholarship and teaching abilities, but too few know about her important contributions to the United States while serving at the State Department (1986-1987) and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (2006-2007). Three factors account for this lack of recognition: Nancy’s self-effacing modesty, the propensity of academics to view even temporary assignments to government positions as digressions from serious scholarly activity, and the failure of government agencies to acknowledge individual contributions to what are inherently collective undertakings. This essay is intended both to illuminate Nancy’s contributions to the national security enterprise and to encourage other accomplished scholars to explore what they can gain from and contribute to the work of government agencies.

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Cover of The China Quarterly, vol. 251.
The political connection between the state and firms in the context of China's corporate restructuring has been little explored. Using the clientelist framework and unpacking the incentives of both firms and the state, we analyse political connections as repeated patron–client exchanges where the politically connected firms can help the state fulfil its revenue imperative, serving as a failsafe for local authorities to ensure that upper-level tax quotas are met.

Leveraging original surveys of the same Chinese firms over an 11-year period and the variations in their post-restructuring board composition, we find that restructured state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with political connections pay more tax than their assessed amount, independent of profits, in exchange for more preferential access to key inputs and policy opportunities controlled by the state.

Examining taxes rather than profits also offers a new interpretation for why China continues to favour its remaining SOEs even when they are less profitable.

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Jean C. Oi
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This opinion piece first appeared in the New York Times.


President Biden’s recent trip to Asia nearly went off without a hitch — until Taiwan came up. Mr. Biden was asked whether the United States would respond “militarily” if China sought to retake the self-ruled island by force.

“Yes,” he said. “That’s the commitment we made.”

It was one of the most explicit U.S. defense guarantees for Taiwan in decades, appearing to depart from a longtime policy of “strategic ambiguity.” But it’s far from certain that the United States could hold off China.

I have been involved in dozens of war games and tabletop exercises to see how a conflict would turn out. Simply put, the United States is outgunned. At the very least, a confrontation with China would be an enormous drain on the U.S. military without any assured outcome that America could repel all of China’s forces. Mr. Biden’s comments may be aimed at deterring a Chinese attack, and hopefully they will.

After a decades-long military modernization, China has the world’s largest navy and the United States could throw far fewer ships into a Taiwan conflict. China’s missile force is also thought to be capable of targeting ships at sea to neutralize the main U.S. tool of power projection, aircraft carriers. The United States has the most advanced fighter jets in the world but access to just two U.S. air bases within unrefueled combat radius of the Taiwan Strait, both in Japan, compared with China’s 39 air bases within 500 miles of Taipei.

If China’s leaders decide they need to recover Taiwan and are convinced that the United States would respond, they may see no other option but a pre-emptive strike on U.S. forces in the region. Chinese missiles could take out key American bases in Japan, and U.S. aircraft carriers could face Chinese “carrier killer” missiles. In this scenario, superior U.S. training and experience would matter little.


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The need to project power across vast distances also makes U.S. forces vulnerable to China’s electronic and cyberwarfare capability. China could disrupt networks like the United States Transportation Command, which moves American assets around and is considered vulnerable to cyberattacks. China may also have the ability to damage satellites and disrupt communications, navigation, targeting, intelligence-gathering, or command and control. Operating from home turf, China could use more-secure systems like fiber-optic cables for its own networks.

Under a best-case battle scenario for the United States, China would attack only Taiwan and refrain from hitting American forces to avoid drawing in U.S. military might. This would allow the United States time to bring its forces into the region, move others to safety and pick where and when it engages with China.

If the United States did ever intervene, it would need regional allies to provide runways, ports and supply depots. But those partners may be eager to stay out of the crossfire.

I’m not the only one who’s worried. A 2018 congressionally mandated assessment warned that America could face a “decisive military defeat” in a war over Taiwan, citing China’s increasingly advanced capabilities and myriad U.S. logistical difficulties. Several top former U.S. defense officials have reached similar conclusions.


Mr. Biden’s remarks were made in the context of Ukraine, and America’s failure to prevent that war may be driving his thinking on Taiwan. Mr. Biden may be calculating that Russia’s setbacks in Ukraine will give China pause and that guaranteed U.S. intervention in a conflict over Taiwan would cost Beijing too much, even if it took the island.

But comparing Ukraine and Taiwan is problematic. Beijing views Taiwan — self-ruled since 1949 — as an integral part of Chinese territory since ancient times, a significantly deeper attachment than Vladimir Putin’s obsession with Ukraine. Reunifying the island with the mainland is one of the Chinese Communist Party’s most cherished goals, and China would see U.S. intervention as a bitter betrayal of the “one China” principle — the idea that China and Taiwan belong together, which Washington has acknowledged since the 1970s.

China’s military is bigger and more formidable than Russia’s, and its economy far larger, more resilient and globally integrated. Rallying support for economic sanctions against Beijing during a conflict — China is the biggest trading partner of many countries — would be more challenging than isolating Russia.

The White House is once again walking back Mr. Biden’s comments, saying official policy has not changed.

If so, then Mr. Biden should stop rocking the boat and focus instead on strengthening America’s position in the Taiwan theater. This doesn’t just mean more weapons for Taiwan and a more robust U.S. military presence in the region, though the former would help the island hold out if China attacked, and both would boost deterrence.

It also means shrewd diplomacy. Mr. Biden needs to stand firm against Chinese intimidation of Taiwan, while working to ease Beijing’s anxieties by demonstrating a stronger U.S. commitment to a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue. Mr. Biden should also persuade regional friends to provide more bases for the United States to use. This not only increases U.S. operational flexibility but also heightens deterrence.

Whatever Mr. Biden’s calculations, departing from the “strategic ambiguity” that has helped keep peace for decades misses the point. The main question for President Xi Jinping must be not whether the United States would join in, but whether China could beat the United States in a battle for Taiwan. Twenty years ago, China’s poorly trained army and largely obsolete naval and air forces had no chance. But that was then.

Many will applaud Mr. Biden for standing up for democratic Taiwan in the face of Chinese threats. But he could be putting the island in greater danger, and the United States may not be able to come to the rescue.

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Many will applaud Mr. Biden for standing up for democratic Taiwan in the face of Chinese threats. But he could be putting the island in greater danger, and the United States may not be able to come to the rescue.

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