Has China Outgrown or Abandoned Deng’s Path to Wealth and Power?

Philippines Conference Room
Encina Hall
616 Serra St., 3rd floor
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305

Tom Fingar cropped
The pattern and logic of China’s interactions with other countries and the international system as a whole were clear and predictable for 35 years, but developments during the past few years suggest that Beijing may have concluded that it is no longer necessary to follow the strategy articulated by Deng Xiaoping in the late 1970s.  Is the break with the past more apparent than real, or has Xi Jinping determined that China can (or must) be more demanding and less accommodating than it was when the country was less prosperous and less powerful?  Is what we are witnessing now a temporary aberration or the first indication that we have entered a new phase of China’s rise and integration into the global system?


Thomas Fingar is the inaugural Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. He was the Payne Distinguished Lecturer at Stanford during January to December 2009. 


From May 2005 through December 2008, he served as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and, concurrently, as chairman of the National Intelligence Council. He served previously as assistant secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (2004–2005), principal deputy assistant secretary (2001–2003), deputy assistant secretary for analysis (1994–2000), director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific (1989–1994), and chief of the China Division (1986–1989). Between 1975 and 1986 he held a number of positions at Stanford University, including senior research associate in the Center for International Security and Arms Control.


Fingar is a graduate of Cornell University (AB in government and history, 1968), and Stanford University (MA, 1969 and PhD, 1977 both in political science). His most recent book is Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence Analysis and National Security (Stanford University Press, 2011).

This event is off the record.


Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow