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China’s economic growth over the past three decades is unprecedented. Although this growth is commonly attributed to a high domestic savings rate among “thrifty” Chinese, savings alone cannot promote economic growth unless productivity has continuously grown for such a long period. This article uses a one-sector, neoclassical growth model to calibrate the economy to Chinese data since 1952 and finds that measuring changes in total factor productivity between 1952 and 2005 can well capture the secular movements in the Chinese savings rate. Far from supporting the widespread belief that China’s savings rate is too high, this article argues that even thrifty Chinese “under-saved” for most of the years during this period; furthermore, the fiscal reforms of 1983 and 1985 further suppressed saving behavior, especially when initially implemented. In presenting such findings, this article at least partly solves the so-called “Chinese savings puzzle.”

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Asia Health Policy Program working paper #25
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When Siyan Yi was a medical student in Cambodia 12 years ago, he volunteered with a collaborative government-NGO project to provide young women at high risk for HIV/AIDS—the victims of sexual exploitation—with housing, vocational training, medical care, and psychological support. Cambodia at that time had one of Asia’s highest HIV-infection rates.

That rate has dropped by half, thanks to government policy measures, international NGO support, and the efforts of medical professionals like Yi. Cambodia’s government must now find ways to curb HIV infection in new segments of the population, says Yi, who is the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center’s inaugural Developing Asia Health Policy Fellow. Sustaining funding for the long-term care of HIV-infected individuals also poses a future challenge, he explains, and new health issues associated with development are beginning to crop up.

Cambodia’s first HIV case was detected in 1991 in a blood donor, and the rate of HIV/AIDS increased dramatically throughout the decade. HIV/AIDS hit Thailand slightly earlier, and was spread through the commercial sex trade. The epidemic reached an even greater scale there than it ever did in Cambodia.

Thailand’s government struck back with a 100-percent condom use promotion program, which Cambodia successfully adopted in the late 1990s. Brothels are illegal in Cambodia, but the government worked cooperatively with owners to provide basic HIV/AIDS education to sex workers. These efforts significantly reduced the transmission of HIV.

Since then, a more indirect form of prostitution has sprung up in places such as karaoke halls, massage parlors, restaurants, and even in factories. HIV prevalence remains high among some sentinel groups such as female sex workers, beer promoters, men who have sex with men (MSM), injected-drug users, and migrant workers.

Yi advocates that the government expand the scope of its HIV/AIDS prevention programs to encompass these new at-risk populations. He even suggests that the government consider creating a system of licensed brothels such as previously existed in Hong Kong and Taiwan. “It would provide the government with an easier means of controlling prostitution, and allow it to work with brothel owners to control HIV-infection rates,” states Yi.

HIV increases the risk of contracting or developing symptoms of tuberculosis; a large proportion of Cambodia’s population carries the disease but shows no signs of it. Tuberculosis went largely undetected during the decades of the Khmer Rouge regime, but with the advent of HIV/AIDS it has become more prevalent. Yi has been involved in government-NGO projects to provide tuberculosis screening for HIV patients, including a tuberculosis control project with the Japan International Cooperation Agency.

Tuberculosis screening and HIV treatment advances may greatly prolong the life—and even improve the health—of patients. But heartening as Cambodia’s success against HIV/AIDS has proven in the past decade, the government largely bears the responsibility for funding the expensive treatment and care for the low-income individuals most affected by it. A critical portion of government funding for its HIV/AIDS prevention programs comes from external organizations. 

“I think that the main issue for the government of Cambodia in the battle against HIV and AIDS is financial sustainability,” says Yi, who worries that donor agencies will withdraw support as the HIV-infection rate continues to improve. Prevention is less expensive, he explains, but long-term care is costly to a developing country such as Cambodia.

Yi, however, feels less concerned now about the HIV/AIDS epidemic and speaks hopefully of working to help the government find ways to measure and treat non-communicable diseases associated with economic development, such as diabetes and hypertension. While he is at Stanford, he will collaborate with Asia Health Policy Program researchers to move his work toward solving Cambodia’s new health challenges.

Inaugurated in 2011, the Siyan Yi is designed to bring leading health policy experts from low-income Asian countries to Stanford for three to 12 months. Fellows will work on conceptualizing and launching collaborative research on a topic of importance for health policy in their country. Details about the 2011–12 application will become available during Winter Quarter 2012.

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Local NGO staff teaching sex workers about the risk of HIV/AIDS, Cambodia.
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The global health community has been aiming at ensuring health coverage for all. To achieve universal health care coverage, the German Social Health Insurance model is one solution. However, one major disadvantage of Social Health Insurance is the fragmented insurance plans, exemplified by 3,500 insurance plans in Japan’s public universal health insurance system. To improve the financial sustainability of Japan’s public universal health insurance, policy options include consolidating fragmented plans as already implemented in Germany and South Korea.

This presentation has two major goals. One is to evaluate the optimal health insurance size in consolidating 3,500 insurance plans in Japan through a simulation analysis using the best available micro data in Japan. The other goal is to discuss the global policy implications based on the experiences of Japan's public universal health insurance.

Dr. Byung-Kwang Yoo is an associate professor in health policy in the Department of Public Health Sciences at the UC Davis School of Medicine. Yoo’s unique career includes clinical medicine (MD) in Japan and research experience as a health services researcher/health economist in the United States. He obtained an MS in health policy and management from Harvard University, and a PhD in health policy and management (concentration on health economics) from Johns Hopkins University. Yoo used to work as a research associate at the Center for Health Policy at Stanford University, as a health economist at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, and as an assistant professor in the Division of Health Policy at the University of Rochester School of Medicine in New York State. He has published his work in leading journals such as Lancet, Health Economics, Health Services Research, the American Journal of Public Health, and the American Journal of Preventive Medicine.

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Byung Kwang Yoo Associate Professor in Health Policy in the Department of Public Health Sciences, School of Medicine Speaker UC Davis
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A condensed version of this paper is published in the Journal of Institutional Economics (2012) 8(2): 247-270.

Abstract: Health systems provide a rich field for testing hypotheses of institutional economics. The incentive structure of current healthcare delivery systems have deep historical and cultural roots, yet must cope with rapid technological change as well as market and government failures. This paper applies the economic approach of comparative and historical institutional analysis (Aoki, 2001; Greif, 2006) to health care systems by conceptualizing physician control over dispensing revenues as a social institution. The theory developed -- emphasizing the interplay between cultural beliefs, interest groups, technological change, insurance expansion and government financing -- offers a plausible explanation of reforms since the 1960s separating prescribing from dispensing in societies such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and China. Technological change and adoption of universal coverage trigger reforms by greatly increasing the social opportunity costs of physician overprescribing and reshaping the political economy of forces impinging on the doctor-patient relationship.

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Asia Health Policy Program working paper #24
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Karen Eggleston
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As lifestyles in China are changing, so too is the ability for people to care for their elderly family members at home. American healthcare companies are beginning to eye China as a potential market for senior residential facilities. Asia Health Policy Program director Karen Eggleston spoke with NPR about possible models for providing affordable, quality care for China's elderly.
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Chinese families, including the elderly, are impacted by lifestyle changes.
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2011-12 Developing Asia Health Policy Fellow
YiSiyan_Profile.jpg MD, PhD

Dr. Siyan Yi joined the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) as a 2011-12 Developing Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellow from the National Center of Global Health and Medicine and the University of Tokyo, Japan, where he jointly served as a research fellow and lecturer. He also served as an adjunct faculty member at Cambodia’s School of Public Health, the National Institute of Public Health, and the School of International Studies at the Royal University of Phnom Penh. He is currently an Associate Professor and UHS-SPH Integrated Research Programme Leader at NUS Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health (profile page here).

Yi’s research has centered largely on epidemiological methods. This has included, for example, work on surveys in Cambodia on adolescent risky sexual behaviors, substance abuse, and depression; a health promotion project in primary schools; sexual behaviors among people living with HIV/AIDS; and HIV risky behaviors among tuberculosis patients. Currently, he is involved in hospital- and community-based research projects in several developing countries as well as in Japan. He has published several papers in these research areas in international journals. His selected publications include:

  • Siyan Yi, Akiko Nanri, Kalpana Poudel, Daisuke Nonaka, Hori Ai, Tetsuya Mizoue. “Association between serum ferritin and depressive symptoms in Japanese municipal employees.” Psychiatry Research, 2011. 189: 368-372.
  • Siyan Yi, Daisuke Nonaka, Marino Nomoto, Jun Kobayashi, and Tetsuya Mizoue. “Predictors of the uptake of A (H1N1) influenza vaccine: Findings from a population-based longitudinal study in Tokyo.” PLoS One, 2011. 6: e18893.
  • Siyan Yi, Krishna C. Poudel, Junko Yasuoka, Paula H. Palmer, Songky Yi, and Masamine Jimba. “Risk vs. protective factors for substance use among adolescent students in Cambodia.” Journal of Substance Use, 2011. 16:14-26.
  • Siyan Yi, Krishna C. Poudel, Junko Yasuoka, Paula H. Palmer, Songky Yi, and Masamine Jimba. “Role of risk and protective factors for risky sexual behaviors among high school students in Cambodia.” BMC Public Health, 2010. 10: 477.
  • Siyan Yi, Krishna C. Poudel, Junko Yasuoka, Masao Ichikawa, Vutha Tan, and Masamine Jimba. “Influencing factors for seeking HIV voluntary counseling and testing among tuberculosis patients in Cambodia.” AIDS Care, 2009. 21: 529-534.

Yi holds an MHSc (2007) and a PhD (2010) in international health sciences from the School of International Health at the University of Tokyo’s Graduate School of Medicine. He also earned an MD in general medicine from the University of Health Sciences, Cambodia (2001). Yi has won research awards, including: the Young Investigator Award from the Asia Pacific Academic Consortium for Public Health (2008), the Montreux Prize from the Swiss Association for Adolescent Health and the International Association for Adolescent Health (2009), and the Scientific Research Award from the University of Tokyo (2009).

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Walter H. Shorenstein
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2011-12 Asia Health Policy Fellow
SunAng_Profile.jpg MA, PhD

Ang Sun joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) from Brown University’s department of economics where she recently received her PhD.

Sun’s research interests encompass development economics, labor and demographic economics, and health economics. She focuses on intra-household allocations, gender differences, and household formation. In particular, she studies how a combination of different forces in China—including traditional values, rapid growth, and the population structure—is affecting Chinese families. During her time at Shorenstein APARC, Sun will participate in an interdisciplinary study of the impact of the aging process in Asia on economic growth.

Sun holds a PhD and an MA in economics from Brown University, and an MA from the China Center of Economic Research. She also received a BA in economics and a BS in information and computer science from Beijing University.

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In addition to the health-protective effects of higher income and social status, better education appears to be an important contributor to good health. However, evidence is limited from developing countries undergoing rapid socioeconomic transition like China. To document the evolution of the educational gradient in health, we analyze the China National Health Services Survey (Ministry of Health, 1998, 2003 and 2008), and the Chinese Family Panel Study (Peking University, 2010). We find patterns consistent with the economic theory of socioeconomic gradients in health, as modified to take account of China's rapid economic, demographic, and epidemiologic transitions over the past quarter century.

Co-sponsored with the Center for East Asian Studies, Stanford University.

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Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
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2011 Shorenstein-Spolgi Fellow in Comparative Health Policy
Qiulin_Chen3x4.jpg MA, PhD

Qiulin Chen is a postdoctoral fellow of Shorenstein APARC and a member of the center's Asia Health Policy Program. His main interest of research is health economics and public finance, focusing on policy and outcome comparison of health care systems and Chinese health reform. His dissertation focused on performance comparison between public (or governmental) and private health care financing, between local and central government responsibility on health care, between contracted and integrated health care system. In particular, his dissertation examined under Chinese-style decentralization, known as fiscal decentralization with political centralization, how economic competition affect local government's behaviour on health investment, and why public contracted system obstructs health performance and provides one channel of such effects in terms of preventive care and public health. He is currently involved in a comparative research project on demographic change in East Asia based on the National Transfer Accounts data and analysis.

Chen's recent publication is "The changing pattern of China's public services" (with Ling Li and Yu Jiang) in Population Aging and the Generational Economy: A Global Perspective (Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason, editors), forthcoming 2011. Before studying in Stanford, he has published more than 10 papers in academic journals in Chinese, such as Jing Ji Yan Jiu (Economic Research) and Zhong Guo Wei Sheng Jing Ji (Chinese Health Economics), and 5 book chapters. He has participated in about 20 research projects, such as A Design of Framework for Healthcare Reform in China which is commissioned by the State Council Working Party on Health Reform, Strategy Planning Study of "Healthy China 2020" which is commissioned by the Minister of Health, and Health Challenge in the Aging Society and It's Policy Implication funded by Chinese National Natural Science Foundation.

Chen earned his Ph.D. in Economics from Peking University in 2010, and earned a B.A. in Business Administration from Nanjing University in 2001. From 2004 through 2008, he was Executive Assistant of the Director of the China Centre for Economic Research at Peking University (CCER). He is also a postdoctoral fellow of National School of Development at Peking University (Its predecessor is CCER).

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Qiulin Chen Visiting Scholar, Center for East Asian Studies Speaker Stanford University

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Stanford University
Encina Hall E301
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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Center Fellow at the Center for Health Policy and the Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research
Faculty Research Fellow of the National Bureau of Economic Research
Faculty Affiliate at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
karen-0320_cropprd.jpg PhD

Karen Eggleston is a Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) at Stanford University and Director of the Stanford Asia Health Policy Program at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at FSI. She is also a Fellow with the Center for Innovation in Global Health at Stanford University School of Medicine, and a Faculty Research Fellow of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Her research focuses on government and market roles in the health sector and Asia health policy, especially in China, India, Japan, and Korea; healthcare productivity; and the economics of the demographic transition.

Eggleston earned her PhD in public policy from Harvard University and has MA degrees in economics and Asian studies from the University of Hawaii and a BA in Asian studies summa cum laude (valedictorian) from Dartmouth College. Eggleston studied in China for two years and was a Fulbright scholar in Korea. She served on the Strategic Technical Advisory Committee for the Asia Pacific Observatory on Health Systems and Policies and has been a consultant to the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the WHO regarding health system reforms in the PRC.

Director of the Asia Health Policy Program, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Stanford Health Policy Associate
Faculty Fellow at the Stanford Center at Peking University, June and August of 2016
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Karen Eggleston Asia Health Policy Program Director, Shorenstein APARC Speaker Stanford University
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The economic reforms of the past two decades have initiated a major social transition in China, characterized by unprecedented social mobility and stratification.  Meanwhile, the privatization of health care has increased costs to the consumer and further changed familial and social norms. While such changes would logically affect individuals’ psychological well-being, little attention has been paid to their impact in this regard. Using data from the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS 2005), this paper looks at the relationships between social change, social support and the psychological well-being of individuals in both urban and rural areas, as well as the role of marital status in Chinese society. We find that an increasing health care burden is significantly reducing individuals’ psychological well-being. Perceptions of social status, especially as it changes over time and when compared against peers, also have an effect. Social support has protective function for psychological well-being, and also compensates for the negative effect of increasing health-care burden and relative deprivation during social change on psychological well-being. Marital status is also significantly correlated with psychological well-being, and moderates the relationships between social change, other social support and psychological health, especially in rural cases.

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Asia Health Policy Program working paper #23
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Huijun Liu
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