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Oriana Skylar Mastro
The flag of Taiwan flies over a military monunment in Kinmen, Taiwan.

Understanding the Stakes in Taiwan

Commentary / November 4, 2022
Larry Diamond and Oriana Skylar Mastro join Michael McFaul on the World Class podcast to discuss China’s ambitions against Taiwan, and how the U.S. and its allies can deter Beijing.
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Portrait of Oriana Skylar Mastro with text "Recipeint of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada 2022-23 John H. McArthur Research Fellowship"

Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro Awarded 2022-23 John H. McArthur Research Fellowship

News / October 28, 2022
The fellowship, established by the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, recognizes Mastro’s exceptional scholarly contributions in the fields of Chinese military, Asia-Pacific security, war termination, and coercive diplomacy.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping waves during a meeting.

China’s Xi Expands Power at Party Congress: Commentary Roundup

News / October 26, 2022
With Xi at the helm for a third term, we should expect to see a more assertive China and more turbulence in the regional and global order, say APARC Director Gi-Wook Shin and Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro. They offer their assessments of the outcomes of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party and its implications for China’s trajectory and U.S.-China relations.
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South Korean soldiers participate in a river crossing exercise with U.S. soldiers.

Striking the Right Balance: What South Korea Can Do to Enhance Deterrence in the Taiwan Strait

News / October 25, 2022
Despite obstacles and risks, there are good reasons why South Korea should want to increase deterrence against China. In a new article, Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro and co-author Sungmin Cho chart an optimal strategy for Seoul to navigate the U.S.-China rivalry and support efforts to defend Taiwan.
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U.S. President Joe Biden hosts a Quad Leaders Summit at the White House.

New Essay Collection Examines Minilateral Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific

News / October 24, 2022
A new Asia Policy roundtable considers whether and how minilateral groupings, such as the Quad and AUKUS, can deter coercion and aggression in the Indo-Pacific. The roundtable co-editor is APARC South Asia Research Scholar Arzan Tarapore, and it opens with an essay by Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro.
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Chinese soldier in Beijing

Assessing China’s Conventional and Unconventional Challenges to U.S. National Security

News / August 25, 2022
Providing a focused analysis of the challenges China poses to U.S. interests, Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro offers readers a means to identify and understand the various strategic threats presented by the superpower on the rise.
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Chinese soldier

China Hasn’t Reached the Peak of Its Power

Commentary / August 22, 2022
Why Beijing can afford to bide Its time
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A Taiwanese F-5 fighter jet is seen after taking off from Chihhang Air Base on August 06, 2022 in Taitung, Taiwan.

China’s Huge Exercises Around Taiwan Were a Rehearsal, Not a Signal, Says Oriana Skylar Mastro

Commentary / August 10, 2022
Nancy Pelosi’s visit was more pretext than provocation.
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Nancy Pelosi and Tsai Ing-wen

Military Capabilities, Not Commitment, at Stake in Taiwan: Oriana Skylar Mastro Examines Fallout From Pelosi's Visit

News / August 4, 2022
Political maneuvers like Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan only anger Beijing but ultimately do not address the key issue of whether the United States has the military capabilities needed to protect Taiwan, argues Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro.
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Guam Navy base

Frontline Guam: Strategic Deterrence in the Westernmost U.S. Territory

News / July 27, 2022
Expanding upon classic deterrence strategies, Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro proposes an underutilized path to deterrence in which Guam — a remote U.S. outpost that has become a strategic hub as tensions with China rise — would remain a crucial logistical waypoint, even in the face of potential Chinese missile attack.
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Two US Navy members guide an air-cushioned landing craft into a port on a naval base,

Assessing U.S. Force Posture in a Taiwan Contingency

Q&As / July 25, 2022
Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro talks to the Center For Advanced China Research about the risk of Chinese attacks on U.S. military bases in Asia at the outset of a Taiwan conflict, the likelihood of Japanese or NATO involvement in a war over Taiwan, the downsides of focusing on communicating resolve to defend Taiwan, whether the United States is “outgunned” by China, and more.
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Government building in China

Problems with Revisionism: A Conceptual Framework for Assessing Chinese Intentions

News / June 15, 2022
Deciphering China’s intentions is a pressing task for U.S. scholars and policymakers, yet there is a lack of consensus about what China plans to accomplish. In a new study that reviews the existing English and Chinese language literature on intentions and revisionism, Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro offers five propositions to allow for a more productive and data-driven approach to understanding Beijing’s intentions.
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Honor guards prepare to raise the Taiwan flag in the Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall square.

Biden Says We’ve Got Taiwan’s Back. But Do We?

Commentary / May 31, 2022
Many will applaud Mr. Biden for standing up for democratic Taiwan in the face of Chinese threats. But he could be putting the island in greater danger, and the United States may not be able to come to the rescue.
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Vladamir Putin and Xi Jinping shake hands.

Beijing Is Used to Learning from Russian Failures

Commentary / April 19, 2022
The invasion of Ukraine is offering useful lessons for the PLA.
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Putin and Xi

An Uncomfortable Friendship: Understanding China’s Position on the Russia-Ukraine War and Its Implications for Great Power Competition

Commentary / March 21, 2022
On WBUR’s "On Point" and Fox 2 KTVU, Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro shares insights about China's alignment with Russia and the worldwide implications of its calculus on Ukraine.
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Protesters display placards in front of the Representative Office of the Moscow-Taipei Coordination Commission to protest against Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine on February 25, 2022 in Taipei, Taiwan.

Invasions Are Not Contagious

Commentary / March 3, 2022
Russia’s War in Ukraine Doesn’t Presage a Chinese Assault on Taiwan
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Army Reserve members during practice

Ukraine Is a Distraction from Taiwan

Commentary / February 14, 2022
Getting bogged down in Europe will impede the U.S.’s ability to compete with China in the Pacific.
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President Xi and Kim Jong Un meet on a TV screen

North Korea Is Becoming an Asset for China

Commentary / February 3, 2022
Pyongyang’s Missiles Could Fracture America’s Alliances
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Chinese military propaganda depicting the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1958.

Reassessing China’s Capabilities and Goals for Strategic Competition

News / November 29, 2021
On the World Class podcast, Oriana Skylar Mastro argues that in order to set effective policy toward China, the United States needs to better understand how and why China is projecting power.
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Oriana Skylar Mastro and Air Force Members

Stanford Scholar Combines Military Service and Academic Research

News / November 11, 2021
Oriana Skylar Mastro has built two careers simultaneously: one as an academic, the other, as a service member in the U.S. Air Force.
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Taiwan

America's Future in Taiwan

Commentary / November 10, 2021
Intensifying threats of a military conflict over Taiwan have brought uncertainty to the stability of regional security for Southeast Asia, according to Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro on radio show On Point.
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Taiwan Wall

Would the United States Come to Taiwan's Defense?

Commentary / October 25, 2021
On CNN's GPS with Fareed Zakaria, APARC Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro shares insights about China's aspirations to take Taiwan by force and the United States' role, should a forceful reunification come to pass.
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missile

Balance of Power: Surprise China Missile Test

Commentary / October 19, 2021
APARC Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro shares insights about China's hypersonic missile capabilities, and the implications of further military buildup.
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USS Key West during during joint Australian-United States military exercises Talisman Sabre 2019 in the Coral Sea.

In Defense of AUKUS

Commentary / October 5, 2021
This is not only about nuclear-powered submarines; it is about a strengthened US commitment to Australia.
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Taiwan island seen from mid-air.

What the U.S. Withdrawal From Afghanistan Means for Taiwan

Commentary / September 13, 2021
In a New York Times opinion piece, Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro argues that the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan does not represent a potential catalyst for an impending Chinese attack on Taiwan.
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