Sino-Japanese Crisis (In)Stability in the East China Sea: A Tale of Two National Security Councils

- This event is jointly sponsored by the China Program and the Japan Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) -

 

Since September 2012, frictions between Beijing and Tokyo over uninhabited islands in the East China Sea have become unprecedentedly unstable. Both China's military and paramilitary activity in the surrounding waters and airspace and Japan's fighter jet scrambles have reached all­-time highs. Recent public opinion polls in both countries record mutual antipathy at the highest level since leaders normalized bilateral diplomatic ties in the 1970s.

Especially under these volatile conditions, risk has surged. Even an accident stemming from a low­-level encounter could quickly escalate into a major crisis between the world's second­- and third­-largest economies (and would entrap the first-largest: the United States). This seminar examines the strengths and weaknesses of China's and Japan's crisis management mechanisms and the implications of nascent national security councils (established in late 2013) in both countries for crisis (in)stability in the East China Sea. It will also examine the prospects for, and obstacles to, more effective crisis management.

Beyond its contemporary policy relevance, the discussion will also engage issues with important implications for Chinese and Japanese foreign policy decision­making, political reforms, civil­ military relations, and U.S. relations with both countries.

 

Adam P. LIFF is Assistant Professor of East Asian International Relations in Indiana University’s new School of Global and International Studies (SGIS/EALC Dept). At SGIS, Adam is also the founding director of the “East Asia and the World” speaker series, faculty affiliate at the Center on American and Global Security, and senior associate at the China Policy Research Institute. He holds a Ph.D. and M.A. in Politics from Princeton University, and a B.A. from Stanford University. Since 2014, Adam has been an associate-in-research at Harvard University’s Reischauer Institute of Japanese Studies and Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies. His research website is www.adampliff.com.

Professor Liff’s research and teaching focus on international relations and security studies—with a particular emphasis on contemporary security affairs in the Asia-Pacific region; the foreign relations of Japan and China; U.S. policy toward the Asia-Pacific (esp. U.S. security alliances); the continuing evolution of Japan’s postwar security policy profile; and the rise of China and its impact on its region and the world. His scholarship has been published or is forthcoming in The China Quarterly, International Security, Journal of Contemporary China, Journal of Strategic Studies, Security Studies, and The Washington Quarterly, and has been cited widely in global media, including in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, and The Economist. Other recent publications include several book chapters in edited volumes and articles in policy journals and online, including in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, and The National Interest.

Professor Liff’s past academic research affiliations include the Princeton-Harvard China and the World Program, the Harvard Kennedy School of Government's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, the University of Virginia's Miller Center, the University of Tokyo's Institute of Social Science, Peking University's School of International Studies, the Stanford Center at PKU, and the University of Tokyo's Graduate School of Law and Politics.