Fertility Restrictions and Life Cycle Outcomes: Evidence from the One Child Policy in China

Wei Huang uses the experience of China's One Child Policy to examine how fertility restrictions affect economic and social outcomes over the lifetime. The One Child Policy imposed a birth quota and heavy penalties for “out-of-plan” births. Using variation in the fertility penalties across provinces over time, He examines how fertility restrictions imposed early in the lives of individuals affected their educational attainment, marriage and fertility decisions, and later life economic outcomes. Exposure to stricter fertility restrictions when young leads to higher education, more white-collar jobs, delayed marriage, and lower fertility. Further consequences include higher household income, consumption, and saving. Finally, exposure to stricter fertility restrictions in early life increases female empowerment as measured by an increase in the fraction of households headed by women, female-oriented consumption and gender-equal opinions. Overall, fertility restrictions imposed when agents are young have powerful effects throughout the life cycle.

Wei Huang is a Post-doctoral Fellow in Aging and Health Economics at the National Bureau of Economic Research. His main research studies public economics, labor economics, and health economics. He is interested in the topics such as health, education, ethnicity, and China. Wei received his PhD in economics from Harvard University in 2016. He received an M.A in economics from National School of Development at Peking University in 2011, and a B.A. in physics from School of Physics at Peking University in 2008.